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04 — Value

Business Case & ROI

Measuring AI impact, closing the pilot-to-production value gap, and building the CFO conversation.

17 guides in this track·2.5h reading·Finance & Value
What you'll learn

Turn AI initiatives into defensible investments — value hypotheses, NPV/IRR, TCO, attribution, and the CFO-grade conversation that gets funding released.

Who this is for

AI programme owners writing the business case, and finance business partners reviewing it.

How to use it

The guides are numbered — read in order for the curriculum path, or jump straight to the one you need. Each card is self-contained.

The guides

Ordered by recommended reading path
01
Why AI ROI Is Different (and Harder to Prove)

Why the ROI conversation for AI breaks the old IT playbook, and the mental model that replaces it.

7 minRead →
02
The Anatomy of an AI Business Case

The six interlocking components of an AI business case that actually survives review.

8 minRead →
03
Sizing the Prize: Value Hypothesis Frameworks

Frameworks for sizing the value of an AI use case honestly, before you spend a dollar on it.

8 minRead →
04
The Full Cost Stack Nobody Budgets For

The full stack of AI costs, from tokens to change management, and where the biggest budget surprises hide.

8 minRead →
05
Total Cost of Ownership for AI Systems

A working TCO model for AI systems across build, run, and evolve phases over a realistic horizon.

9 minRead →
06
Inference Economics: Tokens, Caching, Routing, Distillation

The unit economics of inference and the levers (caching, routing, distillation) that reshape them.

9 minRead →
07
Financial Modeling: NPV, IRR, and Payback for AI

Applying NPV, IRR, and payback to AI investments without pretending the future is deterministic.

9 minRead →
08
Real Options: Valuing AI Under Deep Uncertainty

Real-options thinking for AI investments when the future is genuinely unknowable, not just uncertain.

9 minRead →
09
Leading vs Lagging Indicators of AI Value

Which signals tell you AI is working before the annual metrics catch up, and how to instrument for them.

8 minRead →
10
The Attribution Problem: Proving AI Caused the Gain

Why attribution is the quiet killer of AI business cases, and the counterfactual methods that make it defensible.

8 minRead →
11
Measuring Productivity Realistically (Beyond Hours Saved)

Measuring productivity impact from AI without the fantasy of 'hours saved' translating directly into money.

9 minRead →
12
ROI Patterns by Use Case

The archetypal ROI patterns for common AI use cases, and how to spot which one you are actually staring at.

9 minRead →
13
Agentic AI Economics: Why Multi-Step Changes the Math

Why agentic AI breaks the per-call ROI models and how to value multi-step economics honestly.

9 minRead →
14
Vendor Pricing Models and Negotiation

The AI vendor pricing landscape and how to negotiate contracts that survive a doubling of usage.

10 minRead →
15
Chargeback, Showback, and Governing AI Spend

Chargeback and showback models for AI spend, and the governance patterns that make them stick.

9 minRead →
16
Presenting the Business Case to the CFO and Board

The one-page structure for presenting AI business cases to CFOs and boards that actually gets funded.

10 minRead →
17
Business Case Failure Modes and Anti-Patterns

The failure modes and anti-patterns that quietly kill AI business cases, and the signals of each.

10 minRead →

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